The following e-mail was sent out to all Registered Riders of the 2003 Breathless Agony Ride on 5/01/03 at 12:00 Noon
Hi to the Registered Riders of the 2003 Breathless Agony Ride ...
**** PLEASE READ THIS COMPLETELY AND REPLY AS TO YOUR PLANS to Chuck Bramwell at firstname.lastname@example.org ****
We have been carefully studying the weather forecast for Saturday and have decided to postpone this year's Breathless Agony until Saturday, May 10.
According to http://www.weather.com/weather/local/USCA0094 , the weather forecast for Big Bear Lake for this Saturday is 30-47 Degrees with a 40% chance of rain. This is 2 degrees colder than yesterday's forecast. The detailed forecast shows Big Bear Lake to be 34 Degrees feeling like 27 Degrees at 8:00 A.M. Saturday. Big Bear Lake is at 6,700 Feet ... Onyx Summit is at 8,443 Feet or nearly 1,800 Feet higher. We have concluded that there is a good chance of snow and sleet on Onyx Summit on Saturday making for an extremely dangerous situation.
Our current concern is also in the Severe Weather Alert found at the top of that weather web page and copied below. In particular, it calls out for:
Rain, possibly heavy at times, will continue into Saturday Morning
Mountains expecting 2 to 5 inches of rain
In the mountains, south winds will increase to 30 to 40 MPH with STRONGER GUSTS on the higher peaks
Snow levels will be 7000 Feet (Onyx Summit is at 8,443 Feet)
In addition, as we have reviewed the course, Jack Rabbit Trail will very likely be unrideable unless you like to ride through lots of small lakes and MUD puddles.
The awesome Oak Glen Descent with it's famous hairpin turns would be cold and wet requiring everyone to go very slowly to be safe.
We are concerned about your safety and the safety of our volunteers. We realize most everyone will want to climb as far up to Onyx Summit as they possibly can ... and while it may be warm enough on the climb up because of your body heat, it can be EXTREMELY AND DANGEROUSLY COLD on the descent. Our support team doesn't have the capability of shuttling massive numbers of riders down from Onyx Summit in case of severe weather. Riders would not want to stay at Onyx Summit for long at all because body temperatures would drop very quickly after such a long climb. In past years, we have had a blast celebrating with each rider as they power themselves up to the top!!
The incredible Onyx Summit Descent would probably be in the low 40's but would feel like it was in the low 30's even in the warmest part of the day.
Therefore, we have decided to postpone this year's Breathless Agony from May 3 to May 10. We have made this decision on Thursday, May 1, at 12 Noon in order to give riders a chance to cancel their hotel reservations without paying a late cancellation fee.
We realize that we say on the web site that the Breathless Agony Ride will be held whether it rains or shines. On the Frequently Asked Questions at http://www.cyclingpros.com/onyx.htm#FAQ
"1. Will this ride be held if it rains or snows?
Yes, the Breathless Agony Ride will be held whether it rains or shines. There are NO REFUNDS. It might even be snowing between Angelus Oaks and Onyx Summit -- the ride will be continue anyway (but we would not recommend you continuing unless you are extremely well prepared)."
However, this storm may be even worse than we had imagined possible at this time of year.
The good news is that the current forecast is for "DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK." The current forecast for Big Bear Lake for Saturday, May 10, is 32-63 Degrees with 0% chance of rain. We'll keep our fingers crossed!!
Please reply to this e-mail:
1. Let us know that you received this notice and
2. Let us know if you can join us on May 10 or
3. Let us know if you can't join us on May 10 and we will give you a rain check allowing you to ride the Breathless Agony in 2004.
Thanks for registering for the Breathless Agony and we hope to see you on May 10!!
According to: http://www.weather.com/weather/local/USCA0094
"Severe Weather Alert from the National Weather Service
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
500 AM PDT WED MAY 1 2003
...LATE SEASON STORM WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. THERE'S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY WHEN THE RAIN WILL BEGIN, BUT AT THE PRESENT TIME RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST, THEN MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND ARRIVE IN THE LOS ANGELES BASIN BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. RAIN, POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES, WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS LATE IN THE RAINFALL SEASON. IN GENERAL, 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEYS, WITH THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS EXPECTING 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN. DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES OF SANTA BARBARA, VENTURA, AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST REACHING SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS. IN THE MOUNTAINS, SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS ON THE HIGHER PEAKS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DECREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD SO SNOW LEVELS WILL BE PRETTY HIGH, GENERALLY 7000 FEET OR HIGHER.
AFTER A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY, DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
STAY TUNED TO THE WEATHER CHANNEL AND WEATHER.COM FOR UPDATES.... "